Peter Rupert博士在TSE Gold 100峰会解析经济形势：消费强劲与AI非就业威胁

PALOS VERDES, Calif. — If you ask any event professional about their biggest stressors, the economy will almost certainly come up.

With tariffs, inflation and more factors driving up prices and making margins tight, it’s no wonder that economic anxiety is widespread.

However, at the 2026 Trade Show Executive (TSE) Gold 100 Awards & Summit, Peter Rupert, Ph.D., Professor of Economics at the University of California, Santa Barbara, shared a hopeful outlook for attendees.

Get takeaways from Rupert’s session below!

Spending Is Strong, Indicating Economic Strength in the U.S.

On average, the U.S. grows about 2% in real terms. Since 2000, the country has demonstrated a significantly stronger real income growth compared to Europe.

“Consumers are doing their part; consumption is about 70% of GDP and is still growing strongly,” Rupert said. “If you really thought there was going to be a recession, or you thought there was a big problem in the world, you wouldn’t be buying. You’d be saving.”

Recessions Are Becoming Less Frequent — and Shorter

Rupert added that, since 1850, the U.S. economy has seen a significant reduction in how often recessions occur, reflecting enhanced economic policies and structural improvements that have bolstered stability.

Recessions have not only become less frequent but have also become shorter.

Don’t Fear the AI Apocalypse

Also, Rupert asserted that the belief that AI will decimate the job market is overblown.

“Every technological revolution has prompted the same fear of mass unemployment. Every time the answer has been no,” Rupert said. “Jobs vanish, but new jobs emerge. The future jobs aren’t invented yet and are unimaginable today.”

Rupert believes that AI will augment jobs by boosting productivity and enabling workers to concentrate on higher-value tasks.

Monitor Inflation Using Trimmed Mean Metrics

Trimmed mean metrics are statistical measures of central tendency calculated after removing a fixed proportion of the smallest and largest values from a dataset before averaging the remaining observations.

They offer a more accurate and stable measure of inflation, because they exclude extreme price fluctuations.

This approach filters out sudden spikes or drops and provides a clearer view of the underlying inflation trend, enabling policymakers and business leaders to better assess true inflationary pressures and make informed decisions.

Click here to learn more about reading inflation through the trimmed mean.

The Construction Sector Faces Rising Costs and Mortgage Rates

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the producer price index for construction materials has surged, driving raw material costs sharply higher.

Also, mortgage rates have risen to around 7% for 30-year loans, which has increased borrowing costs for potential homebuyers and led to a slowdown of residential construction.

“The construction sector is facing headwinds from rising raw material prices, high mortgage rates and high house prices, which will likely reduce demand,” Rupert said.

To see Rupert’s full session, click here.

The post The State of the Economy and What It Means for Trade Shows: Peter Rupert, Ph.D. Shares High-Level Analysis at TSE’s Gold 100 appeared first on Trade Show Executive.